参考文献
1. 陈联寿,端义宏,宋丽莉,许映龙主编,《台风预报及其灾害》,气象出版社,2012.
2.Sampson C.R,Jeffries R. A,Neumann C. J. & Chu J-H., Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide 6. Tropical Cyclone Intensity, 1995.
3. 陈国民,白莉娜,万日金,张喜平,2018年西北太平洋和南海台风定位及预报精度评定,第九届全国台风及海洋气象专家工作组第一次会议,浙江台州,2019年3月14-15日.
4. JMA, Annual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 2018.
5. JTWC, Annual Tropical Cyclone Reports in 2018.
6. Brian Belson, 2019 Year in Review: Joint Typhoon Warning Center TC Activity, Forecast Challenges and Priorities, 2019 HFIP Annual Meeting, Miami, FL, Nov 4-6, 2019.
7. John P. Cangialosi,National Hurricane Center 2019 Forecast Verification (Preliminary), 2019 HFIP Annual Meeting, Miami, FL, Nov 4-6, 2019
8. T. Haiden, M. Janousek, F. Vitart, L. Ferranti and F. Prates, Evaluation of ECMWF forecasts, including the 2019 upgrade, November 2019.
9. William M. Gray, Global view of the origin of tropical disturbance and storm, Monthly Weather Review, 1968, 96(10), 669-700.
10. Jule G. Charney and Arnt Eliassen, On the Growth of the Hurricane Depression, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1964, Vol.21(1), 68-75.
11. Kerry A. Emanuel, An Air-Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Steady-State Maintenance, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1986, Vol.43 (6), 585-605.
12. Kerry Emanuel, Hurricanes: A Century of Scientific Progress, http://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/Simpson.pdf
13.Jeffries R. A & Miller R. J., Tropical Cyclone Forecasters Reference Guide 3. Tropical Cyclone Formation, Naval Research Laboratory, 1995
14. 张庆红,郭春蕊,热带气旋生成机制的研究进展,海洋学报,2008;30(4):1-11.
15. Scharroo, R., W. H. F. Smith, and J. L. Lillibridge , Satellite altimetry and the intensification of Hur-ricane Katrina, 2005, Eos, Vol.86(40), p366.
16. Donglian Sun, Ritesh Gautam, Guido Cervone, Zafer Boybeyi, Menas Kafatos , Comment on Satellite Altimetry and the Intensification of Hurricane Katrina, 2006, Eos, Vol. 87(8), p89.
17. Donglian Sun, Menas Kafatos, Guido Cervone, Zafer Boybeyi, Ruixin Yang, Satellite microwave detected SST anomalies and hurricane intensification, Nat Hazards, 2007, 43:273–284.
18. Ronald J. Ferek, Understanding and Predicting the Impact of Outflow on Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Structure, 69th IHC and TCORF, Miami, FL, March 2-5, 2015.
19. Liz Ritchie, Jason Dunion, Sytske Kimball, Mark Guishard, Chi-Sann Liou, Sarah Jones & Yuqin Wang, Topic 1.1. Environmental Interactions on Tropical Cyclone Structure and Structure Change, Sixth WMO international workshop on tropical cyclones (IWTC-VI), San Jose, Costa Rica, 21-30 November 2006.
20. Gregory M. Gallina and Christopher S. Velden, Environmental Vertical Wind Shear and Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Utilizing Enhanced Satellite Derived Wind Information, 25th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, USA, 28 April to May 3. 2002.
21. Fernando Prates, ECMWF progress in tropical cyclone forecasts, 72nd IHC and TCORF, FIU, Miami, FL, March 13-15, 2018.
22. Vijay Tallapragada; Fanglin Yang & Avichal Mehra, Operational Hurricane Modeling Plans at NCEP, 72nd IHC and TCORF, FIU, Miami, FL, March 13-15, 2018.
23. Michael Vellinga, Julian Heming, Helen Titley, Chris Short, Stu Webster, Jo Camp, Met Office prediction systems upgrades and TC products, 72nd IHC and TCORF, FIU, Miami, FL, March 13-15, 2018.
24. James D. Doyle, Jon Moskaitis, Rich Hodur etal., COAMPS-TC Status and Future Plans, 72nd IHC and TCORF, FIU, Miami, FL, March 13-15, 2018.
25. Vijay Tallapragada, Unified Forecast System: Advancing NCEP Operational Global Modeling Systems for 2019 and Beyond, 2019 HFIP Annual Meeting, Miami, FL, Nov 4-6, 2019.
26. Avichal Mehra and the EMC Hurricane Team, Plans for Operational Hurricane Modeling in FY20, 2019 HFIP Annual Meeting, Miami, FL, Nov 4-6, 2019.
27. Brian Gross, EMC Implementations, NOAA Production Suite Review, November 19, 2019.
28. Geoff Manikin, Alicia Bentley, Logan Dawson, Tracey Dorian, FV3GFS Performance On Tropical Cyclones, 2018 NCEP Production Suite Review,23 August 2018.
29. John P. Cangialosi, National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report of 2019 Hurricane Season, 20 April 2020
30. Lisa M. Briegel and William M. Frank, Large-Scale Influences on Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific, Monthly Weather Review, 1997, Vol.125 (7), 1397–1413.
31. Jasper S. Wijnands, Guoqi Qian, and Yuriy Kuleshov, Variable Selection for Tropical Cyclogenesis Predictive Modeling, Monthly Weather Review, 2016, Vol.144 (12), 4605-4619.
32. Sharanya J. Majumdar and Ryan D. Torn, Probabilistic Verification of Global and Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis, Weather and Forecasting, 2014, Vol. 29(5), 1181-1198.
33. Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria, 2003: Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 1093–1108.
34. John Kaplan, Mark DeMaria, and John A. Knaff, A Revised Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index for the Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific Basins, Weather and Forecasting, 2010, Vol. 25(1), 220-241.
35. John A. Knaff, Charles R. Sampson, and Kate D. Musgrave, An Operational Rapid Intensification Prediction Aid for the Western North Pacific, Weather and Forecasting, 2018, Vol. 33(3), 799-811.
36. John A. Knaff, James P. Kossin, and Mark DeMaria, Annular Hurricanes, Weather and Forecasting, 2003, Vol. 18(2), 204-223.
37. John A. Knaff, Thomas A. Cram, Andrea B. Schumacher, James P. Kossin, and Mark DeMaria, Objective Identification of Annular Hurricanes, Weather and Forecasting, 2008, Vol. 23(1), 17-28.Published online on 1 Feb 2008.
38. Kekuan Chu and Zhe-Min Tan, Annular Typhoons in the Western North Pacific, Weather and Forecasting, 2014, Vol. 29(2), 241-251.
39. James P. Kossin and Matthew Sitkowski, An Objective Model for Identifying Secondary Eyewall Formation in Hurricanes, Monthly Weather Review, 2009, Vol. 137(3), 876-892.
40. Sarah C. Jones, Patrick A. Harr and Jim Abraham etal., The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions, Weather and Forecasting, 2003, Vol. 18(6), 1052-1092.
41. Jenni L. Evans and Robert E. Hart, Objective Indicators of the Life Cycle Evolution of Extratropical Transition for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Monthly Weather Review, 2003, Vol. 131(5), 909-925.
42. Robert E. Hart, A Cyclone Phase Space Derived from Thermal Wind and Thermal Asymmetry, Monthly Weather Review, 2003, Vol. 131(4), 585-616.
相关网址
1. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/
2. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/quality-our-forecasts
3. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/tropical-cyclones/verification/index
4. http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/annualreport.html
5. https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-blog/
6. http://nwpc.nmc.cn/sites/main/twainindex/ywxtong.htm?columnid=13
7. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/emc/pages/ncep-numerical-forecast-systems.php
8. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/
9. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/latest-tropical-cyclones-forecast
10. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/tropical-cyclones/warnings
11. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/
12. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical-guidance-model-storm.php
13. https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
14. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/fv3gfs/
15. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml
16. https://meteologix.com/cn/model-charts
17. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/
第六讲 台风强度预报